MILTON, MA— Twenty minutes into a screening of Disney's Snow Dogs Monday, moviegoer Ryan Friesen announced that he can already tell where the commercial breaks will be inserted when the film is aired on ABC sometime in 2003. "Right there... commercial," Friesen said to himself as Cuba Gooding Jr., who stars as a Miami dentist who inherits an dogsled team, heads off to Alaska. "That'll be the first break, right around 8:20 p.m., assuming they start it at 8." Friesen has previously called the commercial breaks for the films Jumanji, Home Alone 2, and Twister with 80 percent accuracy.